The NBA was a very predictable league in the 2010s. Before the start of most seasons during this decade, the average fan could predict who would end up in the finals and it would usually be the safe and obvious choice.
The 2010s were a fun, star-studded era of basketball, but super-teams and weak conferences made it predictable. From 2011-18, LeBron James-led teams made it to nine straight NBA Finals in the Eastern Conference.
Today, times are changing.
From 2015-18, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors made it to the NBA Finals each season. In contrast, in the last four NBA seasons, only one team has made it back to the Finals twice and that team is the Miami Heat, a team who few believed could make the Finals in the seasons that they made it.
Why is there so much more parity in the modern NBA?
Well, for starters, the modern NBA is much more balanced. Super-teams are a thing of the past and with a new collective bargaining agreement and salary cap restrictions, it makes it harder for superstars to join up.
Even with modern teams that have three “superstars,” it doesn’t work as well as it did in the past. Teams that try to stack the deck usually have difficulty adding other quality NBA players to their rosters. Teams like the modern Suns or Clippers would fit into this mold.
Three of the past four NBA champions – the Lakers, Nuggets and Bucks – won titles with two all-star level players teamed up with very solid role players. The only team that did not rely on this strategy in the last four seasons were the Warriors. They won their championship through a great all-around team and a superstar player.
The expansion of the talent pool being is another reason that parity is rampant in the league today.
The Eastern Conference used to be a barren wasteland, with no teams possessing enough star power to contend with the Cavaliers. The West was always stacked, but the Steph Curry and Kevin Durant-led Warriors were always the best team by a large margin when healthy. And even when a few teams could realistically challenge them – such as San Antonio or Houston – injuries derailed these franchises.
Today, the West is still better, but the East is also a very capable conference. There are legitimately six teams that could win the league this year: four in the West and two in the East.
While that number may seem low, it’s a far cry from the two to three contenders we would see per year back in the 2010s.
And it’s a breath of fresh air for a league that has historically been built around dynasties.
